Friday, July 8, 2016

#190 / Ask The Experts

Louis Menand, writing in The New Yorker, observes that "expert" predictions do not seem to be any better than the predictions of the "non-experts" among us. Mostly, Menand is focusing on "political" predictions, and his short article, "Everybody's An Expert," is fun to read. I recommend it.

I think Menand's discussion may miss an important point, however.

One reason that "predictions" are often not very accurate, whether such predictions are made by "experts" or "non-experts," is that the phenomenon of human freedom is not properly taken into account. We are, at every moment, capable of doing things that are unexpected, that are surprising, that are, quite literally, "unpredictable."

Let's not believe the experts when they something "can't be done."

It can!

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