Robert Hubbell (who happens to be a lawyer) writes a Substack blog about politics. Hubbell calls his blog, "Today's Edition." I subscribe to Hubbell's daily blog, and if you don't subscribe yourself, I suggest that you should check it out. It is quite informative, and there is a no-cost option available.
On May 28, 2026, Hubbell's newsletter provided "some perspective on the Texas primary results." As you may remember, if you are following our national politics with at least some attention to events taking place in states far from where you live (I am assuming that most of the people reading this blog posting of mine do not live in Texas), a guy named Ken Paxton, running for the United States Senate in Texas, defeated the current U.S. Senator, John Cornyn, in a primary election to decide who would be the Republican Party candidate in November.
Cornyn, as the incumbent U.S. Senator since 2002, can boast a long record in the Congress. I would characterize his record as quite conservative, but principled. Paxton, who beat out Cornyn in the primary, has been the Attorney General of Texas since 2015, and is regularly called the "most corrupt politician in America." While this charge has been lodged most notably by James Talarico, the Democratic Party candidate for the Senate in November, Talarico is not the only one who thinks that this is a good description.
At any rate (I'm getting distracted from the point I wanted to make), Hubbell's blog posting on May 28th discussed "The Law of Small Numbers," and I thought that his commentary was instructive:
The breathless reporting about the margin of Paxton’s victory could create the misimpression that Trump is getting stronger. Not true. Trump is maintaining his death grip on a shrinking minority, even as he is losing support nationally across all demographics.Moreover, the turnout in Texas was pathetic, making it dangerous and foolhardy to draw conclusions about the relative strength of Trump, Republicans, and Democrats among Texas voters. Only 8% of Texas registered voters participated in the run-off election.In some counties, Paxton and Cornyn received votes in the single or double digits. For example, in Zapata County, Paxton garnered 22 votes, while Cornyn won 6 votes, making it appear that Paxton crushed Cornyn 79% to 21%.
Given the tiny number of votes cast in Zapata County, it would be easy for the Law of Small Numbers to lead observers to incorrect conclusions.For example, the latest available data from the Texas Secretary of State shows there are 7,886 registered voters in Zapata County, meaning the turnout in the Republican runoff—28 voters—was very close to 0%.Moreover, because Zapata County is predominantly Latino (93%), someone not paying attention to the low turnout could erroneously conclude that Paxton has very strong support in counties with large Latino populations.
Instead, the most reasonable inference to be drawn from the Zapata County results is that in a county that is overwhelmingly Latino, there was virtually no support for Paxton or Cornyn (emphasis added).
Hubbell's point? His point is that how election results are reported does not, in all cases, tell us what's actually going on. One of the virtues of the Hubbell newsletter is that it does, as it advertises, look at our politics through the "lens of hope." Many citizens, today, have stepped away from "politics," because they do find it "hopeless." Maybe it's not! Maybe that's just the way politics is often reported and discussed, and this is why what we read about politics ends up elevating "hopelessness" over my favorite category, "possibility."
I actually think that's true, and the antidote (I speak from experience) is our personal participation in politics - not as "observers," but as actors, as those who believe it's possible to change the world, and who work at it!












