I heard about the book pictured above from a review in the "Bookshelf" column in The Wall Street Journal. Andrew Stark's review was headlined, "A Profession Of Prediction." Stark says that the book he reviewed, Could Should Might Don't, by Nick Foster, is an examination of "how we think about the future."
Let me weigh in with a personal observation, which is directed at a slightly different, though clearly related, question. "How should we think about the future?"
My comment here replays comments I have made before, in earlier blog postings. I continue to be concerned that we not see ourselves mainly as "observers" of reality, but as the "creators" of reality. That is even more important when the "reality" we are thinking about, and discussing, is a "future" reality.
"Observation," telling us "what is," makes the most sense when we are talking about current conditions. When we think about the future, though, I suggest that we need to think in terms of "possibility," not "observation." Thus, any discussion of what the future "could" be, or what the future "should" be, needs to include a focus on our own ability, by our personal action, to "make it so," to use the language notably employed by Jean-Luc Picard, in Star Trek.
Based on the review, it looks to me like Nick Foster's book is mainly focused on how we might best "predict" the future, and that, of course, is important. It's important to plot the trajectory of events and to know what "might" happen in the future. It's also important to consider those "don't do" actions and activities, too, as we contemplate what sort of a future we might have to confront. Here, for instance, is one of my favorite "don't do" actions: Don't ever use nuclear weapons again, ever! Click right here to see what I said about that topic last Wednesday.
When we "think about the future," though, what is most important is to think about what we want the future to be, and then about what actions we need to take to create that future.
Our "real" future - the future "reality" that we will confront (starting with tomorrow, and moving forward from there) is not properly understood by looking ahead at what "might" happen (including all the bad things that "might" happen if we undertake some of those "don't do" proscriptions).
What is the best way to "think about the future?"
What "could" we do? What "should" we do? Those are the questions we need to focus upon, as we think about the future, and what we really need to do is to start is by thinking first about what we "want" to do.
Then, we all need to turn into Star Trek fans, and follow this famous admonition:
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