Dario Amodei [pictured above], the chief executive of the A.I. company Anthropic, puts his between 10 and 25 percent. Lina Khan, the chair of the Federal Trade Commission, recently told me she’s at 15 percent. And Emmett Shear, who served as OpenAI’s interim chief executive for about five minutes last month, has said he hovers somewhere between 5 and 50 percent....
P(doom) — which is math-speak for “probability of doom” — is the way some artificial intelligence researchers talk about how likely they believe it is that A.I. will kill us all, or create some other cataclysm that threatens human survival. A high p(doom) means you think an A.I. apocalypse is likely, while a low one means you think we’ll probably tough it out....
Ajeya Cotra, a senior researcher at Open Philanthropy who studies A.I. risk, has spent a lot of time thinking about p(doom). She thinks it’s potentially useful as a piece of shorthand — her p(doom) is between 20 and 30 percent, for the record — but she also sees its limits. For starters, p(doom) doesn’t take into account that the probability of harm associated with A.I. depends in large part on how we choose to govern it.
“I know some people who have a p(doom) of more than 90 percent, and it’s so high partly because they think companies and governments won’t bother with good safety practices and policy measures,” she told me. “I know others who have a p(doom) of less than 5 percent, and it’s so low partly because they expect that scientists and policymakers will work hard to prevent catastrophic harm before it occurs.”
In other words, you could think of p(doom) as a kind of Rorschach test — a statistic that is supposed to be about A.I., but that ultimately reveals more about how we feel about humans, and our ability to make use of powerful new technology while keeping its risks in check.
fate or destiny, especially adverse fate; unavoidable ill fortune: In exile and poverty, he met his doom (emphasis added).
It's sugar for sugar, and it's salt for salt. If we go down in the flood it's going to be our own fault.
I'm asking him to change his ways (oh)
And no message could've been any clearer
If you wanna make the world a better place
Take a look at yourself and then make that change