Trump is not looking at potentially winning 49 states. He’s looking at trying to win twice while losing the popular vote.But he does have a strategy and the strategy is correctly calibrated for the task at hand. He must racialize the electorate to maximize his vote in heavily-white communities and tap a wedge in between the urban and suburban Democrats so that the latter will defect in sufficient numbers for him to recover his losses. His problem is that efforts to maximize his white vote actually have the effect of pushing urban and suburban Democrats into a closer alliance. For this reason, he will fail unless the Democrats help ramp up his base numbers and depress their own.This is where policies like free health care for undocumented people or abolishing all private health insurance are going to do damage. These things are not popular in general and are especially unpopular with the Democrats’ suburban base. A lot of the Democrats’ rhetoric on border issues is toxic not just in the sticks but also in the communities ringing our cities.So, yes, the Democrats really could blow this election by running a non-strategic campaign based on abstract values against a campaign that is laser-focused on just the voters it needs to win.
Both Longman and The Nation are suggesting that "the Democrats" will be divided, going into the 2020 presidential election, and that the result will be the reelection of Donald Trump, even though it is pretty clear that a majority of the voters in the country would rather have someone else. The way the campaign is shaping up, it's a "person," Donald Trump, against a party, "the Democrats."