Saturday, May 25, 2019

#145 / The Experts Say 60%

According to Joe Garofoli, who hosts a podcast and writes the "It's All Political" column in The San Francisco Chronicle, one "expert" political observer says that "President Trump could easily win re-election." The "expert" cited by Garofoli is Matt Morrison. Because The Chronicle has a formidible paywall, it's not certain that a reader of this blog posting will be able to see Garofoli's May 24th column by clicking this link, but that link is where Garofoli's column can be found. Here is a brief excerpt:

Matt Morrison has spent a lot of time over the past two years talking to working-class voters in Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and he’s got a message for those who don’t get out of the West Coast blue bubble much: President Trump could easily win re-election. 
"If nothing were to change from today, I would give him a better-than-likely probability of being re-elected and winning pretty clear majorities in places like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin,” said Morrison. He leads the labor-funded Working America, a group that advocates for and has done deep research on working-class voters, including interviewing 5,000 people in focus groups in those states and elsewhere. 
Morrison believes that despite Trump’s tough-talking rhetoric, he hasn’t been good for working-class voters. While the stock market gains have benefited wealthier Americans, wage growth for most workers hasn’t kept pace with the rise in the economy. Yet Trump remains popular among white voters in Rust Belt states.

Garofoli also quotes Massachusetts Democratic Representative Seth Moulton to the same effect. Moulton puts Trump's current chances at 60%.

Why do I mention these "experts?" I mention them because I believe that amost everyone who is hoping that President Trump will not be reelected next year has vastly underrated him, and it's irritating. I truly believe that it is critically important to beat Donald Trump when he runs for reelection in 2020. But to do that, I believe a candidate (and that candidate's party) has to express some admiration for our current president. Just as a "concession" in an argumentative essay almost always strengthens the argument of the person who makes the concession, so conceding that Trump is doing some things that the people want is an important part of running a campaign against him.

The "political class" is out of favor with the American people (and for good reason). To capture the presidency, a successful candidate will have to be "against" the political class (not of it). That's my view. Trump's strength is that he is on the side of those who "deplore" the political class. That's his main appeal to the voters.

Running against the personal and political failings of our current president will not be enough.

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