Tuesday, January 1, 2013
#1 / Predicting The Future
Typically, we “predict” the future by extrapolating current trends. That system has its place, but there is a problem. An extrapolation of current trends fails to predict “new” actions, things that we or someone else does that are not being done now. We can, in other words, always change what we are doing, and transform the trends.
When I first got involved in public life in Santa Cruz County, in the early 1970’s, Santa Cruz County was the fastest growing county in California, and the fifth fastest growing county in the entire nation. Predictions based on then current trends forecast a population of half a million people by the year 2000. A massive residential development was being proposed for the Santa Cruz County North Coast. It was predicted that almost all our prime farmland would be paved over, and that there would be urban development from Santa Cruz to Watsonville, along Highway One; from Santa Cruz to the Summit, along Highway 17; and from Santa Cruz to Boulder Creek, along Highway 9. That didn’t happen because Santa Cruz voters changed the land use policies that governed growth and development.
Our individual and collective freedom to choose what we are going to do is an undeniable reality, however often ignored.
As we enter a New Year, I suggest that instead of predicting what will happen to us, we should decide, instead, what we want to happen, and then make our ideas into a reality.
Image Credit: http://www.thesantacruzlodging.com/